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Election 2016: Social Predicts New Hampshire Primary Result

By Jordan Hanson  •  February 10, 2016

   

Election 2016: Social Predicts New Hampshire Primary Result

Posted by: Jordan Hanson on February 10, 2016

The New Hampshire election results from last night mean we have another data set to consider as the presidential race marches toward the general election season.

Yesterday, we kept track of how many voters declared their intention to vote for any individual candidate for twelve hours, beginning at 10AM.

Interestingly, the results don't change much throughout the day. See the chart after the break.

This set of graphs visualizes each candidate's performance throughout the day in total positive commentary volume.

NH_full_results_final.png

There are a couple of easy-to-spot patterns in this data, but like last time, social media intelligence tools allowed us to predict the eventual winners well before typical media outlets.

Bernie Bounces Forward, Trump Towers Over Competitors in New Hampshire

The obvious pattern is fairly visible. While Hillary Clinton tends to lead Bernie Sanders in national comparisons, voters in New Hampshire picked Sanders by a comfortable margin, even echoed in the social conversation data.

Donald Trump, by the same token, roared to victory ahead of his nearest rivals -- Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz -- with the same social conversation volume demonstrated as his democratic rival on the night, Bernie Sanders. Interestingly, while political commentators suspected that Ohio Governor John Kasich would make a strong showing, evidence of his surge is demonstrated over more traditional "establishment" Republican candidates like Rubio and Cruz.

Up Next: South Carolina (R: Feb 20, D: Feb 27); Nevada (D: Feb 20, R: Feb 23); Super Tuesday (March 1)

The next major primary events will have concluded in a little more than two weeks from today. These primaries in particular are important because they are the last two states to conduct their primary votes in advance of Super Tuesday on March 1.

These states also represent the last chance for candidates to sway and attract voter support before the vast majority of primaries and caucuses distribute the largest share of national convention delegates. Candidates like Trump, Cruz, and Rubio will hope to unify their disparate parts of the Republican base and shift voter loyalty away from their more poorly-performing counterparts. More and more presidential hopefuls will suspend their campaigns until we're left with just a few. The race between Clinton and Sanders, however, remains as tightly-knit as ever.

 

We'll be here to track campaign issues and events across social media conversation to provide insights behind all of the election madness.

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Topics: polling, election, social media intelligence

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